2018-03-16

Making a Tough Decision under Uncertainty

I didn't expect that this moment would come so early though I had known that it would have to come sooner or later. For one external reason I'm forced to make a tough decision under uncertainty by the end of May. Whatever decision I may make, it will affect the rest of my life profoundly, mainly professionally but also privately.

My decision involves choosing one of the two options - keeping the status quo by remaining in my comfort zone vs. getting out of it by taking a calculated risk. Naturally, all the fellow dwellers of the "cave", who feel so comfortable there, have tried to dissuade me from choosing the second option because of uncertainty. But I've decided to opt for it for a couple of important reasons that have more to do with my intuition or gut feelings.

This second option is fully aligned with the new life vision I've come to embrace after experiencing a midlife crisis recently. Not only do I know but also do I feel that if I shouldn't take this decisive step for fear of uncertainty, I regret the rest of my whole life, especially on my last day in this reincarnation of mine.

The riskiest thing in life is to take no risk. Of course, I've calculated the risk of this second option, but nobody can be fully sure of its outcome. The only sure thing in life is our eventual death. I've also read rather recently that paradoxically, the more you know intellectually about something about which you have to make a decision, the more erroneous that decision of yours is liable to become. This is based on a series of empirical research on heuristics by one of the world experts in the field.

So what should we give the last say to in making a tough but wise decision that will even affect the rest of my life after calculating its risk? Our intuition or gut feelings! My intuition points to this second option. Now I remember being forced to make some similar, though less tough, decisions under uncertainty in the past and relying on my intuition.

Furthermore, every time I was in such a crossroads in my life, I made sure that the first option would become unavailable at all by intentionally closing this exit so that I may focus on the other option as the only one.

I'll make this tough decision under uncertainty by calculating its risk but following my intuition as I can't not do what it will bring to my life, which is fully aligned to my new life vision.